One of the main, if not the main, arguments of politicians in the developed world against the collapse of the Russian Federation is the fear that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of “unpredictable or inadequate people”. But do we expect that nuclear weapons within the Russian Federation are now in the hands of people who are predictable and adequate?
Is the act of terrorism that the Russian army carried out when it exploded the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station an “adequate act of predictable people”? The Russian army violates articles 56 and 57 of the Geneva Convention, is this a sign of adequacy?
The possible answer to all rhetoric questions lays in the fact that Russian Empire, then the USSR, and now the Russian Federation are reincarnations of the mid-century Moscow Kingdom. It is a brutal and inhuman empire that degrades more and more every year. Only after liberation from Moscow and the formation of new independent countries will it be possible to talk about important changes for our civilization:
- The disappearance of the military threat to the NATO allies (primarily the Baltic States and Poland), and therefore avoiding the application of Article 5 and, accordingly, excluding a direct military confrontation with the nuclear Russia.
- Narrowing the space for growing Chinese (PRC) influence – in contrast to the “united and indivisible” Russia, which in current state can gradually become completely transformed not just into a junior partner, but into a real vassal of China, and could become a totally dependent resource base and additional nuclear/military arsenal. Eventually most of the newly independent states of post-Putin Russia will choose as key strategic partners not China but the EU, USA, Japan, Turkey, Korea or Kazakhstan.
- The real complete denuclearization of Russia’s successor states (the end of the nuclear threat to the United States since Stalin’s time) and the large-scale demilitarization of the related countries. Moreover, according to some reports, the nuclear arsenal of the so-called Russian Federation is technically obsolete and falling into decay. The shelf life of warheads is coming to the end. The enrichment of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium hasn’t been carried out for many years. Maintaining such costly and dangerous components is not profitable for any future free nations in the post-Russian space.
- The colossal reduction of geopolitical instability, risks and threats inspirited by Russia around the world (Ukraine is an exceptional case): from Iran, the Taliban and Hezbollah, to Central Africa, Syria, Cuba, Congo, Bolivia, Venezuela, Moldova and Georgia (Sakartvelo).
- Stabilization of the hydrocarbon market, due to a significant reduction in the use of gas and oil as political goods, the transition to normal trade relations, in particular with the regions of Tyumen, Siberia, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan (which in turn may create new opportunities for influence and even pressure on Iran, KSA, Venezuela).
- Neutralizing the risk of repeated Russian interference in the US/EU/UK elections and attempts to stir up the internal riots.
- A high potential for the creation of the Pacific/East Asia Security Belt, where several newly independent democracies in East Asia (centered in Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Siberia, Kamchatka and Yakutsk) become geopolitical, trade, and military allies of the United States, Japan, and Korea. That will significantly limit the PRC and the DPRK scope for action in the east and south (ie reduce risks to the US allies Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Australia, and potentially to Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia), shackling their forces in the north.
- Enhancing opportunities for interaction and influence in Central Asia region (primarily Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan).
- Reducing the need for US involvement in the Caucasus and Central Asia, as the creation of the Intermarium Alliance (Poland and Ukraine in particular, as well as the Baltic States and Scandinavia) with the active participation and leadership of the United Kingdom, and the prospect of Kazakhstan, Turkey, Qatar, Japan and Korea) will be able to assume the role of arbitrator and hub, to ensure interests and the security of the Euro-Atlantic community.
Context and Vision
The new architecture of collective security in Europe, the Atlantic and Eurasia, including the long-term resilience of democratic liberal governments in Europe (both Central and Western) based on the fundamentals of the Open Society (according to Karl Popper), is simply impossible today without qualitative change of Russia state.
Moreover, this is impossible without liberating the regions of Russia from the Moscow occupation.
The very size of modern Russia, as well as its unchanging imperial essence (which took various forms under the RI-USSR-RF), is the reason for the enslavement not only of the inhabitants of the country (in fact are not “citizens”, because they are limited in the actual use of most civil rights and freedoms), but also the desire to seize neighboring states by imposing there authoritarian anti-liberal model (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Sakartvelo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc.).
For those countries that, for various reasons, are still not military targets for russism, is applied a range of Russia’s instruments: government officials corruption, crime influence and engagement, propaganda media, resource dependent economy, networks of influencers and other tools of “soft power”, which all together are focused on setting the preconditions for belonging to Russia sphere of influence, where all marginal movements are supported (both radical “left” and radical “right”), as well as political forces that despise liberal values and are hostile to the principles of the Open Society (like Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, Le Pen in France etc).
Thus, the russism of the Russian Empire threatens not only all the achievements and progress of the freedom, civil rights and liberalism in Europe over the past 30 years, but also, if succeeded, will encourage other authoritarian and totalitarian regimes around the world, primarily Chinese (as well as Iranian, Syrian, Venezuelan, etc.).
To resolve this issue once and for all, it is necessary to ensure a CONTROLLED and full-scale structural Decolonization & Reconstruction of post-Russia space, which includes, in particular, assistance in transforming a number of Russian regions into independent democracies (not just another replacement of an absolutely inadequate “king” to a little less crazy, the last will gradually return everything to its own).
Source: The Gaze