It has finally happened—French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed a candidate for the role of Prime Minister who is acceptable to him: Michel Barnier. This 73-year-old liberal-conservative politician, with openly right-wing views, appears as something of a veteran compared to his predecessor, Gabriel Attal, who at 35, is half his age. As predicted by The Gaze two months ago, the outcome is the appointment of a technocrat. Moreover, it is likely that this will not only be the highest position of Barnier’s career, but also his last prominent role, given his advanced age. The only issue now is whether the new government can avoid a no-confidence vote from the French National Assembly.

On 5 September, President Emmanuel Macron appointed 73-year-old Michel Barnier, a representative of the liberal-conservative party, Les Républicains, as Prime Minister. In doing so, Macron has definitively dashed the hopes of the radical left to influence government policy by appointing their own protégé, 37-year-old leftist activist Lucie Castets. This also preserves the President’s freedom of action.

France’s political system is such that the President appoints the Prime Minister, and the President also influences the composition of the government. However, the National Assembly, France’s parliament, can pass a vote of no confidence, forcing the government to resign. In the coming weeks, a perfect opportunity will arise for this, as by 1 October, the government must submit a draft law on the state budget for 2025 to the parliament.

The question is: can the National Assembly gather enough votes to overturn Macron’s appointees? Let’s break it down: the French parliament consists of 577 seats, meaning 289 votes are needed for a vote of no confidence.

After the results of the snap parliamentary elections, the seat distribution was as follows:

  • NPF (Nouveau Front Populaire), a left-wing alliance – 180 seats;
  • Ensemble, the pro-presidential electoral bloc – 159 seats;
  • RN (Rassemblement National), the far-right populist party led by Marine Le Pen – 142 seats;
  • Les Républicains, the liberal-conservative party closely linked to Michel Barnier – 39 seats;
  • Other smaller parties and independent MPs – 57 seats.

It is important to note that the NPF comprises a variety of political parties, ranging from environmentalists and centre-leftists to communists and the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed), led by Macron’s fierce opponent Jean-Luc Mélenchon. As we reported a few days ago, Macron has already held talks with representatives of some moderate political factions within the NPF. Moreover, other small parties and independent MPs outside the three major electoral blocs (NPF, Ensemble, and RN) are also willing to discuss their interests.

In this context, Macron’s allies—Ensemble and Les Républicains—which together hold 198 seats, may gain an additional 90 votes, making it impossible to topple the government.

Looking at it from the other side, Macron’s clear opponents seem to be only some representatives of Rassemblement National and certain factions of the NPF, with a potential total of 322 votes. For Macron to block a vote of no confidence, he needs to secure the support of just 32 representatives from the NPF and the RN.

This is quite feasible, given the significant influence of centrists and environmentalists within the NPF. Furthermore, considering rumours that influential figures within the Rassemblement National did not oppose Barnier’s candidacy, the chances of a no-confidence vote against the Macron-Barnier government remain slim.

Of course, Barnier will have to pay a hefty price for staying in office—by including representatives from other political forces in the government, beyond the Ensemble- Les Républicains duo. But this is certainly possible.

Now, let’s return to Michel Barnier himself. He is truly a political heavyweight and technocrat. First and foremost, he hails from a highly respectable family. His ancestors have been in public service for more than 150 years, and his grandfather, Victor Joseph Altmaier, a Knight and Commander of the Legion of Honour, was a French general of German descent who founded a respected military dynasty.

Michel Barnier has already announced that his government’s priorities will be education, as well as security and immigration control. It seems he will also oppose the socialist sentiments that have dominated French public life over the past year.

It comes as no surprise that Michel Barnier has built a reputation as a confident, even stubborn Gaullist—an admirer of Charles de Gaulle’s views, particularly regarding France’s independent foreign policy. Despite his dedication to Gaullism, Barnier holds pro-European views and supports strengthening EU institutions. Notably, from 2016 to 2021, he led the European Commission’s negotiations with the UK on Brexit, which underscores several key points:

  • Barnier commands immense authority within EU bureaucracy;
  • He possesses significant expertise in foreign policy and international trade;
  • He maintains strong, amicable relations with the British establishment;
  • He has extensive connections with large businesses both within the EU and the UK.

In addition to this, Barnier’s career has been remarkably versatile, having held the following roles:

  • Minister for the Environment (1993–1995);
  • Minister for European Affairs (1995–1997);
  • Minister of Foreign Affairs (2004–2005);
  • Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries (2007–2009);
  • European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services (2010–2014);
  • Vice President of the European People’s Party (EPP), whose current representative heads the European Commission (2010–2015).

These qualifications make Michel Barnier a “universal soldier” with nearly limitless expertise. While the French National Assembly may criticise him for various reasons, a lack of experience or qualifications won’t be one of them.

Economically, Barnier’s views are quite close to those of Macron, with a shared liberal perspective and respect for a market economy. At the same time, Barnier holds positions that might even appeal to the far right. As both an MP and a civil servant, he advocated for the abolition of the death penalty, stricter control over non-European immigration, increased prison capacity, mandatory minimum sentences for certain crimes, but opposed the decriminalisation of same-sex relationships.

Perhaps Barnier’s greatest advantage is his age—he is the oldest prime minister in modern French history (Fifth Republic). In 2022, he participated in the presidential primary for his party but did not succeed. This shows that he harboured significant political ambitions just two years ago and even attempted to challenge Macron from the right. However, it’s unlikely that any political party will consider Barnier as a candidate in the next election. When Macron finishes his term in 2027, he will be under 50, while Barnier will be 76, in a country with a long list of younger political talents, many of whom are still under 40.

For Barnier, this current role is the pinnacle of his political career, making him a convenient choice not only for Macron but also for his opponents. At the same time, Michel Barnier is an experienced politician capable of navigating the significant challenges faced by not only France but all of Western Europe as a result of Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine.

Source: The Gaze